What Are The Chances Of Juan Soto Winning The 2024 AL MVP Award?

Juan Soto had a great start in his Pinstripes journey this year. The New York Yankees went all-in to sign the Dominican slugger last offseason. They sacrificed a lot of their pitching resources to land two outfielders from the San Diego Padres. One of them was the Dominican slugger, and the other one was Trent Grisham. Adding these two guys bolstered their offense as well as their outfield. Now, the Bronx Bombers have two All-Star level sluggers in their lineup: Aaron Judge and the new addition. Clearly, the Judge-Soto duo has transformed the Yankees offense into one of the most formidable lineups in the league.

Both these sluggers are top contenders for winning the American League MVP this year. If the Yankees captain wins it this year, it will be his second Most Valued Player Award. The first time he won it was in 2022. He broke the AL single-season home run record that year. But this year, the California native is again on his way to breaking more records. He is already leading the league in several offensive categories, including the most HR so far. However, Juan Soto still seems to have a good chance to win the AL race.

How Can Juan Soto Win The MVP Race?

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Tony Blengino of Forbes explained why he thinks the Dominican slugger has the best chance to win the AL Most Valuable Player race this year. Clearly, the race seems to be quite tight so far in the ongoing season. But Blengino believes Soto has the best ‘Tru’ Player Runs Above Average of all in the American League. As per the Forbes baseball analyst, shortstop Corey Seager of the Texas Rangers is number five on the list of top contenders to win AL MVP this season. Then, Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles is on fourth spot. Another shortstop like Henderson and Seager, Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is number three on Blengino’s list. Finally, the top two contenders for the 2024 AL MVP, as Blengino believes, are Aaron Judge and Juan Soto.

But the Forbes analyst said the Yankees captain has a ‘Tru’ Player Runs Above Average of 67.4. On the other hand, the Dominican slugger has 72.9 TPRAA. Then, Judge trails Shohei Ohtani and Juan Soto in terms of Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. Moreover, the California native has 310 AFBCS. But his partner in baseball crime has 344 AFBCS which is slightly better than the Unicorn, who has 342 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. Moreover, the Dominican hitter has a far superior profile of K/BB. Then, it comes down to the defensive performances of Judge and Soto. Blengino says Soto’s defensive performance has been better than Judge.

Fangraphs Says Aaron Judge Has Better Chance Of Winning The MVP Race

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Aaron Judge is usually good at defense, but he has struggled a bit this year on the center field. On the other hand, Juan Soto’s defense is not his strong suit. But he has vastly improved at defense this year. That’s why Blengino might make a valid point. However, Fangraphs WAR shows the expected result.

As Aaron Judge still leads in the AL MVP contention. The Yankees captain has 8.3 WAR, which is slightly better than Bobby Witt Jr., who has 8.1 WAR. Anyway, Judge and Witt have far superior WARs than Soto (6.9) and Henderson (6.4). The season is only 2/3rd over. There is still two months to go before the postseason.