Just one win is needed for the New York Yankees to clinch the AL East.  They can do it in front of their nearest rivals the Baltimore Orioles in the Bronx this week.

(Photo by Mike Stobe/Getty Images)

After a series sweep against the Oakland Athletics to complete their final road trip of the season, the New York Yankees return home needing just one win to win the AL East division.

For so much of the season, the Yankees and Baltimore Orioles had been locked into a heated division race, with neither side able to build a comfortable lead at the top.  The pair enjoyed extremely hot starts to the season, as the Yankees began 42-19 and the Orioles 37-20.  Since then, they endured slumps simultaneously, unable to make the most of each other’s struggles.

However, as the regular season winds to a close and the postseason brackets begin to take shape, one team has started to pull ahead.  With six games to go, the Yankees hold a six-game lead over their division rivals, as they prepare to go head-to-head for one last series in the Bronx before October arrives.

Orioles’ Collapse

The Orioles last led the AL East on September 6th, when they held a 0.5-game advantage over the Yankees.  In the 14 games since, they have won just 10, whilst the Yankees have won 11 of 15.  This has resulted in a huge turnaround in the standings, with the Orioles looking behind rather than ahead.

Baltimore’s early season form means they should not worry about falling out of the wildcard, their magic number is just two to clinch a postseason berth. They need one win and a Minnesota Twins loss.  However, this alarming slump is a cause for concern going into the playoffs.

Injuries have not helped, the team lost starting pitchers Kyle Bradish and Grayson Rodriguez earlier in the season.  Recently it has been the offense that has struggled, coinciding with the absences of Jordan Westburg, Roman Urias and Ryan Mountcastle.  Highly-rated rookie Jackson Holliday has been used more than expected, and whilst he has delivered a few clutch hits, he is still adjusting to MLB pitching.

Whilst the O’s have lost 10 of 14, there was some renewed optimism around the side before the weekend with back-to-back wins against the San Francisco Giants and Detroit Tigers. Anthony Santander delivered a two-run blast to walk off the Giants to avoid a sweep last Thursday before they dominated the Tigers 7-1 the following day.  Yet any momentum gained from these two victories was quickly dashed with consecutive losses to the Tigers.

Watch Out for Detroit

The resurgence seemed to continue as they went for a series win against the red-hot Tigers, but a killer ninth inning left them thinking ‘what could’ve been’.  Trailing by two heading into the bottom of the ninth, two singles from Heston Kjerstad and Emmanuel Rivera put them in business.  A walk to Holliday loaded the bases with nobody out for star shortstop Gunnar Henderson.  The 23-year old produced a game-tying double with runners at second and third, still with no outs.  It seemed like a certain walk-off for the hosts, but a groundout and stunning defensive play by Trey Sweeney sent the game to extras.

Riley Greene and pinch-hitter Jace Jung produced hits to give Detroit the lead right back.  Such has been the Orioles’ struggles, they failed to drive in the ghost runner at second and lost the game 6-4.  They again fell to a gut-punching 4-3 loss the next day to lose yet another series.  They have not won a series since they swept the Chicago White Sox in early September.

Perhaps more importantly, this is the second time in three series they have been defeated by the Tigers.  After being all but out of the playoff race a few weeks ago, Detroit has stormed back to take a wildcard spot.  They are tied with the Kansas City Royals, who are in the midst of a seven-game losing streak, but do not hold the tiebreaker.  If form continues, they should overtake the Royals very soon.  This would set up a wildcard series against the Orioles.  In the last two series, the O’s avoided a matchup with likely Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal. Should they face off in a three-game series, this could be a dangerous proposition.

But first, the Orioles must confirm their place in the postseason.  It will most likely happen, whether that is against the Yankees or Twins on the road.  Their prospects beyond that are in question, though players returning from injury will provide a huge boost.

Yankees Getting the Job Done

With six games to go, the Yankees can almost taste AL East success.  One win over the Orioles in this upcoming series will do the job, and they can celebrate in front of their rivals.  There has already been one celebration for the Bronx Bombers, as they popped the champagne for securing a postseason berth last week against the Seattle Mariners.  The scenes in the clubhouse that night summed up the excellent vibes within the team and the closeness they share heading into the most important weeks of the season.

It had been a struggle for long parts of the season, but it seems they have come out of that slide.  The Yankees began the season with a 49-22 record until June 13th, but this preceded a stretch in which they went 14-23.  Aaron Judge and Juan Soto were carrying the side offensively, and they sorely missed the power of Giancarlo Stanton behind them, who had homered 18 times up until he got injured on June 22nd.  Their slump occurred during his absence, but since he returned on July 29th, the side have won 30 games and lost 19.  This is the best record in the American League during this period.

Clicking at the Perfect Time?

Pitching has returned to top form and the offense is beginning to heat up once more.  In their last 16 games, the Yankees have a collective ERA of 1.96.  Their bullpen has a 1.10 ERA in this span.  Both stats lead all of baseball.  They have finally found their closer in Luke Weaver, who has replaced the struggling Clay Holmes.  Holmes has blown 13 saves this season, tied for the franchise record and one shy of the MLB record.  Since Weaver took his place, he has recorded four out of four saves, with zero earned runs and 22 strikeouts in 10 innings pitched.

Judge has broken out of a slump, hitting .393 in his last nine games with four home runs, reaching 55 on the season.  Soto provided a scare as he collided with a wall in Seattle hurting his knee, but he ultimately missed just one start in Oakland.  He won the game for New York with a pinch-hit double in extra innings.  Others are beginning to contribute more, none more so than Gleyber Torres, who has excelled in the leadoff position.  Since moving to the top of the order full-time in mid-August, he has a batting average of 3.08 and an OPS of .830. His impressive displays date back further to June, when he returned from a benching for lack of effort. The emergence of Austin Wells and the acquisition of Jazz Chisholm Jr behind them alongside Stanton is also proving to be a force.

Whilst the division is almost certainly locked up, the job is not finished.  Next on the agenda is to finish with the best record in the AL, ensuring home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.  The Yankees hold a 1.5-game lead over the Cleveland Guardians, who are top of the AL Central.  They also own the tiebreaker.  The one seed in the AL would also mean they avoid the Houston Astros until the ALCS, an important note given many believe they are the biggest obstacle between them and the World Series.

Home advantage in a potential World Series is also within reach.  The best record in baseball currently belongs to the Los Angeles Dodgers, who stand at 93-63.  At 92-64, the Yankees are tied with the Philadelphia Phillies but hold the tiebreaker over them.  They do not own the tiebreaker over the Dodgers.  Though there will be more celebrations in the Bronx this week, work is still to be done.