The numbers are steady—but the message is explosive.

In the latest fourth-quarter survey by Pulse Asia, Vice President Sara Duterte once again emerged with higher approval and trust ratings than President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., reinforcing a political reality that continues to unsettle Malacañang and energize critics: while the country’s top two leaders remain formally allied, public confidence in them is no longer equal.

Released on December 31, the survey—conducted from December 12 to 15, 2025—shows that although movements in ratings were statistically modest, the gap between the President and the Vice President remains significant, reflecting deeper regional, economic, and political tensions beneath the surface of national leadership.

Marcos: Approval Stagnant, Disapproval Deepening

President Marcos registered an approval rating of 34 percent, a marginal increase from 33 percent in September. However, this slight uptick was overshadowed by a rise in disapproval, which climbed from 44 percent to 48 percent. Meanwhile, undecided respondents dropped from 23 percent to 18 percent, suggesting that more Filipinos are making up their minds—and many are leaning toward dissatisfaction.

Trust ratings followed a similar pattern. Marcos’ trust score declined from 34 percent to 32 percent, while those who said they distrust him increased to 47 percent, up from 45 percent. One in five Filipinos remains undecided, but the overall picture is clear: trust in the President remains fragile.

Regionally, Marcos continues to struggle outside Luzon. While he posted his strongest approval in Balance Luzon at 51 percent, support in Mindanao dropped to a strikingly low seven percent, underscoring a geographic divide that has persisted since the start of his term.

Sara Duterte: Stable Majority, Stronghold Intact

Vice President Sara Duterte, by contrast, maintained a majority approval rating of 56 percent, nearly unchanged from 55 percent in the previous quarter. Although her disapproval rating ticked up slightly—from 22 percent to 24 percent—the decline in undecided respondents suggests her public image remains relatively stable.

Her trust rating dipped modestly from 56 percent to 54 percent, while distrust rose from 21 percent to 24 percent. Even with these shifts, Duterte continues to outperform the President across key metrics.

The Vice President’s political fortress remains Mindanao, where she posted a staggering 95 percent approval and trust rating, a figure unmatched by any national official. She also enjoys strong backing in the Visayas, where roughly seven out of ten respondents expressed approval and trust.

“Normal Fourth Quarter,” But Not a Neutral Message

Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes described the survey results as a “normal fourth-quarter pattern,” noting that public opinion typically stabilizes toward the end of the year, especially during the holiday season. Changes of two to three percentage points, he emphasized, are statistically insignificant.

“This is normal for a fourth-quarter survey,” Holmes said in an interview on Storycon on One News. “Ratings usually move only when people experience a clear deterioration in their material conditions.”

Yet beneath the calm statistical language lies a more sobering assessment. Holmes noted that Marcos’ approval has only slightly recovered from its lowest point in March 2025 and remains weak overall, with a majority of Filipinos disapproving of his performance.

Economy Still the Core Issue

According to Holmes, the survey confirms that economic anxieties continue to dominate public sentiment. Inflation, wages, employment, and poverty remain four of the top five urgent concerns among Filipinos. Corruption, while still present in the public consciousness, showed only a slight decline as a priority issue.

Notably, a portion of previously undecided respondents shifted toward disapproval of both leaders, signaling growing impatience among citizens who once withheld judgment.

“About two out of ten Filipinos are still undecided,” Holmes said, “but some of those who were undecided are now expressing dissatisfaction.”

Investigations, Impeachment, and Political Risk

Holmes acknowledged that congressional investigations and budget hearings had previously contributed to a decline in Duterte’s ratings earlier in the year. However, he said these effects have since stabilized, with no major erosion evident in the latest survey.

He cautioned, however, that any renewed impeachment effort against the Vice President could shift public opinion—depending on how she responds and whether clear evidence is presented.

“If something is proven to be illegal, then accountability follows,” Holmes said, adding that Filipinos generally accept impeachment outcomes when evidence is clear and compelling.

As for President Marcos, Holmes described impeachment as unlikely, citing his supermajority support in the House of Representatives and strong influence over budget allocations. Still, he warned that public sentiment remains fluid and could change in early 2026 surveys, especially if economic pressures intensify.

Malacañang Responds: “Ratings Are Just a Guide”

Despite the unfavorable comparison, Malacañang downplayed the results.

Presidential Communications Undersecretary Claire Castro said the survey would not affect the President’s resolve, framing the dip in ratings as a consequence of the administration’s anti-corruption drive.

“The ratings serve as a guide for the administration,” Castro said in Filipino. “But whether high or low, they will not affect the President and his work, especially in curbing or eliminating corruption.”

She added pointedly that if the decline is due to investigations into anomalous flood control projects, the President is willing to accept it.

“If it’s the right decision—even if it’s not popular—the President would not mind,” she said.

A Quiet Standoff Beneath the Surface

While Pulse Asia calls the shifts “normal,” the broader narrative is anything but. The survey underscores a quiet but persistent imbalance between the country’s two most powerful figures—one struggling to consolidate trust, the other maintaining a resilient base.

As 2026 approaches, the question is no longer whether approval ratings will change—but what event will finally move them, and in whose favor.

For now, the numbers hold steady.
But the political tension they reveal continues to build.