Photo credit: Sportsnet

Sportsnet’s Luke Fox has revealed why it’s highly unlikely that we see Mitch Marner end up with a contract extension before or during the 2024-25 season.

Marner and the Leafs have been eligible to begin negotiating a new contract since July 1st, but neither side has given the media anything in terms of what may or may not be going on behind the scenes this summer.

For Marner, this next contract has the potential to be the last big money deal of his career if he goes for the full 8-year term. For the Leafs, the question of whether or not they want to commit to the type of term and dollars that Marner will be demanding having endured several unproductive postseasons from the star winger.

Luke Fox recently sat down with Alex Adams on the Behind the Play podcast, with the pair getting into the Marner discussion relatively early in their Q&A. Fox made a shocking revelation when he opined that we may not see a Marner deal until next summer — if at all.

“I don’t see them coming to an extension the way Nylander did, because I just feel like it wouldn’t go over very well in-season before there’s anything different in the playoffs. We all know Marner is an elite regular season player. He can put up 100 points if he stays healthy and puts his mind to it. I have no doubt. I mean, this is a great talent.”

Fox then alluded to the deal signed by Nylander last season being the absolute bottom dollar for Marner, suggesting that the price will be well north of that number thanks to the mammoth $112M deal just signed by Leon Draisaitl.

“Draisaitl just raised the bar. I don’t think [Marner] is taking a penny less than Nylander and I don’t think the Leafs are willing to pay him that right now, until they see something different come postseason time.

I do believe that [Brad] Treliving at least explored options in terms of moving on from him, but if Marner wants to stay, he stays. And I understand from his point of view why he’d want to. He gets to play setup man to the most dangerous goal scorer in the sport and you’re going into a contract year where you’re trying to make as much money as possible, so I think this just plays out.”

Fox concluded that there’s a very big risk on the Leafs’ part here, potentially walking one of the best active wingers in hockey out the door with the chance to headline the free agent pool in the summer of 2025.

Marner holding all of the cards here, thanks to his full NMC, which has made the whole situation much more challenging for the Leafs.