Juan Soto’s outlook for the 2025 season: A new era with the Mets (Image Credit: Imagn)
It’s a new age for Juan Soto, who is now the highest-paid player in sports history. No player has ever seen a contract like Soto’s, which comes after a uniquely early start to a potentially Hall of Fame career.
The slugger had a career season and parlayed it into a massive bidding war. The New York Mets won that bidding war for 15 years and $765 million. They now have a player coming off an excellent season.
The New York Yankees lost that war, and they lost their player. With the Yankees, Soto had his best season yet. He smashed a career-high 41 home runs, had a 180 wRC+, and a career-best 8.1 fWAR.
For good measure, he also hit .288 with a .419 OBP. Soto recorded a career-high in runs and Fangraphs’ offensive rating, too. It was a perfect year for Soto, who landed the definition of a mega-deal.
But with such a deal and the bidding war that preceded it comes high expectations. Soto now has to live up to the price. Will he do that in 2025?
Predicting Juan Soto’s first year in a Mets uniform
There will be no substitution for hitting in front of Aaron Judge. Juan Soto reaped the benefits of the eventual 2024 AL MVP looming on deck all season long, and the Mets, while they do have some strong hitters, won’t have anyone like that.
However, if he’d played at Citi Field, Soto would have hit 46 home runs (compared to an xHR of 45 at Yankee Stadium). The park factors suggest that Yankee Stadium is significantly more hitter-friendly than Citi Field, though (Yankee Stadium is 18th, while Citi Field is 27th).
That, plus the lack of Judge in the lineup, might hurt Soto. It will be difficult to hit as well as he did in 2024 without an MVP behind him and in a pitcher-friendly ballpark. However, his eye, which is Soto’s best attribute, isn’t affected by any of that.
Juan Soto is with the Mets (Imagn)Fangraphs projects a very strong year: a .282 batting average, 169 wRC+, 6.7 fWAR, 36 home runs, 96 RBIs and a .421 on-base percentage.
Our prediction: Soto struggles just a little more without Judge and Yankee Stadium but remains one of baseball’s best. He hits .275 with 37 home runs, a .441 on-base percentage, and a 164 wRC+ all to the tune of 7.0 fWAR.
