Photo credit: James Guillory – USA Today Sports

Maple Leafs’ captain John Tavares had a troubling season compared to his usual lofty standards in 2023-24, finishing with just 29 goals and 65 points in 80 games played. It was his lowest points-per-game average in a full regular season since his rookie year when he deposited 24 goals and 54 points in 82 games played in 2009-10.

Since coming to Toronto, Tavares has scored 155 goals and 354 points in 360 games between 2018-19 and 2022-23. He was never flashy and wasn’t as eccentric as some of his counterparts, but he found a way to produce at a point-per-game pace and always come near or above the 30-goal threshold. While last year was a down-year for the 33-year-old, can we expect a bounce-back effort in 2024-25? Better yet, what would happen if he returned to the norm of 35-goals and 80-points – in a contract year, no less?

The Maple Leafs’ offense is always going to be paced by their three-headed monster in Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander. Their contributions will be paramount to the level of success that the organization reaches in 2024-25 and beyond. While they’re each scoring 90-100 points next year, if Tavares can turn back the clock ever so slightly to 2022-23 and return to his 80-point self, the Leafs could be in store for an even better season.

A lot of what Tavares does isn’t seen or noticed on the boxscore, at least compared to a player like Matthews or Marner. However, he has the ability to score 35+ goals, 80 points, skate 18-20 minutes a night, win close to 60% of his face-offs, and impact the game with ridiculous analytical splits. Over the last 3 seasons, Tavares has won 59.4% of his draws, has finished off 336 hits to go along with 117 blocked shots, and has a 60 CF% and FF% analytically. In essence, he has the ability to change the game on a whim with and without the puck.

If he can find a way to avoid another disastrous slump – like the one he suffered through last year – there’s a great chance that the Maple Leafs offense houses 4 players with upwards of 80 points.

If the Leafs are interested in an extension, the number that most people are zeroing in on right now is somewhere around the 5 million dollar range. He will be 35 by the time his new contract kicks in, he should be looking for more term than AAV at this stage of his career, and while he’s coming off a lucrative deal, he will still be looking to cash in one last time. A season where he returned to the norm might help him achieve all of that and boost his AAV to the 7-plus million dollar range.

Outside of a 33-game stretch where he scored just 10 goals and 16 points, Tavares was his usual productive self. On either side of that slump, he was at a point-per-game pace. After that 33-game stretch, he finished the season with 10 goals and 20 points in 19 games and going into the slump he had accumulated 29 points in 28 games. There’s no reason to believe that he can’t sustain that point-per-game pace playing alongside the core members once again and keeping his power play time and spot intact.

With both Marner and Tavares heading into the season without extensions, it’s a big gamble on the part of the Maple Leafs but one they have to take. Money is always going to be tight and with their Stanley Cup window as open as ever, they need to know who’s in and who’s out and in the case of Tavares, a bounce back season would not only alter the perception of his supposed decline but also allow him to remain in Toronto and earn a bit more change than previously projected.