A highly sensitive situation in the contested South China Sea has intensified following the passage of Typhoon Tino (international name Kalmaegi), with Taiwanese media claiming that a China Coast Guard (CCG) ship and two maritime militia vessels have sunk near the Spratly Islands, a report vehemently denied by Beijing.
The alleged incident, which reportedly occurred last Wednesday, highlights the relentless patrol and assertiveness of Chinese authorities in the South China Sea, including the West Philippine Sea, where naval and coast guard confrontations with Philippine vessels defending the nation’s 200-nautical mile Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) are ongoing.
The Discrepancy: Missing Radar Pings vs. Beijing’s Denial
According to the initial reports from Taiwanese media, one of the three reported missing vessels, a China Coast Guard ship with the hull number 23511, vanished from their tracking radar shortly after Typhoon Tino (Kalmaegi) swept through the vicinity of Menghu Island in Taiwan, an area better known as Scarborough Shoal (Panatag Shoal or Bajo de Masinloc) to the Philippines.
However, Chinese state media has categorically dismissed the Taiwanese reports as baseless lies and propaganda, asserting that their vessels remain steadfast in protecting what they claim are Chinese territories in the South China Sea. Beijing affirmed that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) authorities will continue to maintain their surveillance over all claimed territories, including the province of Taiwan, despite Taipei’s continuous rejection of the “One China” principle.
The Storm’s Impact and Surveillance Findings
The reports of missing ships coincided with observed movements of Chinese vessels, which appeared to be relocating to avoid the powerful tail-end effects of the typhoon.
Ray Powell, Director of SeaLight and a prominent West Philippine Sea monitor, provided an update to Lucas News Media, including the Inquirer, regarding the vessels near Scarborough Shoal. Powell noted that out of four China Coast Guard ships previously monitored, two had moved approximately 40 to 45 nautical miles away from the Luzon coast, seeking refuge from the extreme weather. Crucially, he also stated that three other China Coast Guard ships had gone “dark” and were no longer traceable on the SeaLight radar. This sudden loss of radar contact fueled speculation that the Taiwan media reports regarding sinkings or severe damage might hold some truth.
While these shifts were observed near Scarborough Shoal, other Chinese militia ships were reportedly sighted near the Spratly Islands. Just the day before, Powell had noted that four large CCG ships were preparing to ride out the typhoon at Scarborough Shoal, a strategy often employed by Chinese vessels in the area despite the hazardous conditions.
The overall pattern, however, aligns with historical observations: Chinese ships frequently retreat from the Panatag area during major storms. This was also seen just last month when CCG and militia vessels fled the vicinity due to Severe Tropical Storm Paolo.
The Context of Sovereignty and International Law
The incident occurs against the backdrop of China’s sweeping claim over almost the entirety of the South China Sea, an assertion that was invalidated by the landmark 2016 Arbitral Award. The ruling affirmed the sovereign rights of the Philippines to fish and explore resources within its own Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).
Despite the international ruling, Beijing maintains a constant and aggressive presence in the area, leading to repeated standoffs and dangerous maneuvers against Philippine government vessels and fishing boats.
Typhoon Tino’s Exit
As the geopolitical storm rages, the natural storm continues its trajectory. According to PAGASA (Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration) reports, the center of Typhoon Tino was last located 190 kilometers west of Coron, Palawan, packing maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h and gustiness of up to 180 km/h. At the time of the report, the typhoon was estimated to be heading towards Vietnam and was expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) shortly.
The ultimate fate of the reported missing vessels remains unconfirmed, trapped between conflicting state narratives and the destructive power of the tropical cyclone.