Photo credit: JOHN E. SOKOLOWSKI-USA TODAY SPORTS

Leon Draisaitl’s 8-year pact with the Oilers has raised the bar for contracts for elite players, adding a unique wrinkle for the Maple Leafs regarding Mitch Marner.

Earlier this week, Leon Draisaitl shocked the hockey world when he signed an extension in Edmonton worth a staggering $14M per season, totalling $112M.

Naturally, the parallel drawn between the Maple Leafs and the Oilers here was that Draisaitl had leapfrogged Auston Matthews as the highest paid player in the league. However, there was another angle between these two clubs that hadn’t been immediately considered; what does the Draisaitl deal mean for Mitch Marner, who is set to become a UFA a year from now?

Marner, on multiple occasions, has expressed his desire to remain in Toronto, but the Draisaitl deal certainly complicates matters for the Leafs, as Draisaitl, an elite player at his position, may have altered the market for elite players. Marner, being an elite player at his position, could potentially command more than Auston Matthews on his next deal, setting a new precedent for wingers around the National Hockey League.

Naturally, Draisaitl has benefitted greatly from playing alongside Connor McDavid, the consensus best player in the NHL. Draisaitl’s 850 points across 719 career regular season games has led him to a 1.182 points per game average.

Meanwhile, Marner, who plays alongside the best pure goal scorer in the NHL in Auston Matthews, has produced 639 points across 576 career regular season games — a 1.109 points per game average. He’s not quite up to par with Draisaitl, but he’s in the wheelhouse in terms of regular season production.

The problem that the Leafs will face here is that Marner’s agent, Darren Ferris, always aims to extract the maximum dollar for his client during negotiations. Now that there’s a new measuring stick for elite players, you can bet your bottom dollar that Ferris is going to push for Marner to not only be the highest paid winger in the league, but perhaps the highest paid player.

The salary cap is rising year over year and as the cap rises, so too does the AAV on players who seek out a percentage of that rising cap. Marner earned 13.37% of the cap when he signed his last deal, a 6-year pact worth $10.893M per season (which became $10.903M when the league’s minimum contract value went up). That same percentage would be worth $11.765M under the current cap. Naturally, Marner will likely be seeking something much closer to 15-15.5%, which would put his cap hit somewhere around $13.2M-$13.64M per season.

Where people struggle with these figures is that Marner has not proven himself to be the same level of playoff performer that Draisaitl is. Across 74 career playoff games, Draisaitl has been a machine, producing 41 goals and 108 points. Meanwhile, Marner has appeared in 57 postseason contests and has accrued just 11 goals and 50 points.

Granted, players are not paid their salary during the playoffs, they’re paid for their regular season. However, everyone knows that the playoffs are vastly more important and that true game changers rise to the occasion because you can’t put a price on winning hockey’s greatest prize.

If Marner truly does want to remain a Leaf, he’d be wise to approach his agent and tell him that he wants to leave money on the table, because if push comes to shove and the ask is at or above Auston Matthews’ $13.25M cap hit, the Leafs may simply cut bait and spend their money somewhere else, leaving Marner to find a new home for the 2025-26 season and beyond.