With the dog days of the off-season upon us, we at Canucks Army have started a thought exercise series looking at two scenarios and trying to decide which is more likely to occur next season. We’ll lay the scenarios out, offer an explanation of our thoughts and then leave the comments section wide open for discussion and debate.
It’s quite possible neither scenario is actually achieved. Or perhaps both will be accomplished. We don’t have a crystal ball so we’re looking at probabilities here. In the fourth edition of the series, we are asking which is more likely – Dakota Joshua scores 22 goals or Jake DeBrusk scores 32 goals?

Dakota Joshua

Despite playing just 63 games due to a hand injury suffered in February, Dakota Joshua still managed to establish career highs in goals (18) and points (32) last season. It’s safe to assume that had he played an entire schedule, the 28-year-old would have cracked the 20 goal mark and likely would have taken a legitimate run at 25.

Daniel Wagner (Pass It To Bulis) on the Canucks finding the next Dakota Joshua, free agency, Hronek

However, like so many of his teammates last season, Joshua rode the wave of a wild shooting percentage converting on 21.4% of his 84 shots on goal. That seems highly unlikely to be repeated. But with the security of a new four year contract in hand and clearly a player that has earned the trust of the head coach, Joshua could find himself getting more opportunities next season.
At the very least, he’ll be a  second unit power play guy, but he may get chances to play in the Canucks top six at times, too. A big man who has shown he has the hands to produce in tight, Joshua needs to shoot the puck a little more next season. Some of that can come from corralling rebounds in and around the blue paint. It’s expected Joshua will start the season on a line with Conor Garland, although there is some question about who will play the middle there. The Canucks believe there is more in Joshua’s game and that last season was a breakout year that will serve as a springboard to more significant production.

Jake DeBrusk

Three times in his NHL career, Jake DeBrusk has been a 25-goal scorer twice topping out at 27 goals in a season. And, it should be noted, that in both of his 27-goal seasons, DeBrusk played just 64 and 67 games. So this is a player that has scored at a 35-goal rate in his career. And in both of those 27-goal seasons his totals were aided by modest power play contributions.
The Canucks went out and targeted the 27-year-old as an unrestricted free agent because they believe he can step into a top six role here and produce immediately. It also seems a good bet that DeBrusk will get a long look as the fifth piece on the team’s top unit power play that stands to bounce back after struggling down the stretch and through the playoffs. DeBrusk is coming off a disappointing 19-goal season although, like Joshua, a hand injury hampered him through much of the second half.

When healthy, DeBrusk returned to form in the playoffs scoring five times and adding six assists in 13 games. One other thing to consider about DeBrusk is that he has never had more than 19 penalty minutes in an NHL season. This is a player who doesn’t take needless trips to the box. So he is available when coaches need him and, as such, will be looking to make a splash in his first season in Vancouver.

Which is more likely?

For either of these players, reaching the target total in this exercise would represent a career season in the goal scoring department. For Dakota Joshua, netting 20-goals while being a key penalty killer and a team leader in hits would qualify as a smashing success. As the playoffs revealed there is still an element of inconsistency in Joshua’s game where he will make an impact one night but then fall back for the next two or three. For him to reach 22 goals, he’ll need to find a way to be impactful with a little more regularity than he did last season.

For DeBrusk, there is no question he has to score goals to make his seven-year contract worth it for the Canucks. Patrik Allvin suggested the DeBrusk signing was done to give Elias Pettersson a legitimate scoring winger to play with. To that end, much of DeBrusk’s success will hinge on Pettersson returning to his elite playmaking form. If Pettersson returns with any kind of vengeance to prove the critics wrong and to live up to the first year of his new mega contract, DeBrusk will surely benefit. And if he settles into a role on a resurgent power play, it feels like 32 goals could be within his reach.